Tuesday, December 16, 2014

DataQuick: "Bay Area Home Sales Slowest in Six Years" in November

by Bill McBride on 12/16/2014 02:24:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area Home Sales Slowest in Six Years; Single-Digit Price Increase

Home sales dropped to the lowest level for the month of November since 2008, the result of a limited number of homes for sale, cautious buyers, a challenging mortgage market and a quirk of the calendar that resulted in a relatively low number days for recording deals. ... A total of 6,003 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in November 2014. That was down 22.0 percent from 7,693 in October of this year and down 9.9 percent from 6,659 in November 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.

A decline in sales from October to November is normal for the season. It’s likely that this November’s sales decline from October was especially sharp because of a calendar issue: There were only 17 days on which home sales could be recorded at county recorders’ offices this November, compared with 22 or 23 days in October, depending on the county. Over the last decade, there has been an average of about 19 days for such recordings in the month of November.
...
“Each calendar month has its own set of characteristics, its own personality. November is always kind of an interlude month, and the statistics aren’t really very good for predicting upcoming activity. That said, we did see a continuation of long-term trends: Low supply levels, a dysfunctional mortgage market and dormant market categories. This could change fast, and the big question then will be just how much pent-up demand is out there. No one knows,” said John Karevoll, CoreLogic DataQuick analyst.
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 2.8 percent of all resales in November, unchanged from a revised 2.8 percent in October, and down from 3.7 percent in November 2013. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is 9.7 percent. Foreclosure resales are purchased homes that had been previously foreclosed upon in the prior 12 months.

Short sales made up an estimated 4.3 percent of Bay Area resales in November, up from an estimated 3.4 percent in October and down from 7.2 percent in November 2013. Short sales are transactions in which the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property.
emphasis added
Note: I live in California, and in my area it seems like a large number of homes went "pending" during the last few weeks. If that is happening elsewhere, then we will see an increase in sales in December and January (seasonally adjusted).  But November was soft.