Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in October

by Bill McBride on 12/30/2014 08:36:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Pace Eases While Eight Cities Show Faster Gains

Data released today for October 2014, shows that the pace of home prices across the country continues to decelerate although eight cities did see prices rise faster... Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year declines in October compared to September. The 10-City Composite gained 4.4% year-over-year, down from 4.7% in September. The 20-City Composite gained 4.5% year-over-year, compared to 4.8% in September. The S&P/CaseShiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.6% annual gain in October 2014 versus 4.8% in September.
...
The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in October. Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn, -0.1%, while the National Index posted a -0.2% change for the month. San Francisco and Tampa led all cities in October with increases of 0.8%. Chicago and Cleveland offset those gains by reporting decreases of -1.0% and -0.7% respectively.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 18.0% from the peak, and up 0.7% in October (SA). The Composite 10 is up 24.1% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 17.0% from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in October. The Composite 20 is up 25.0% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The National index is off 9.8% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in October.  The National index is up 21.8% from the post-bubble low set in Dec 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.4% compared to October 2013.

The Composite 20 SA is up 4.5% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 4.6% year-over-year.

Prices increased (SA) in all 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in October seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 8 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 42.3% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was lower than the consensus forecast for a 4.8% YoY increase for the National index, and suggests a further slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.