Wednesday, December 17, 2014

BLS: CPI decreased 0.3% in November, Core CPI increased 0.1%

by Bill McBride on 12/17/2014 08:33:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The gasoline index posted its sharpest decline since December 2008 and was the main cause of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also declined, and the energy index fell 3.8 percent. ...

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November. ...

The all items index increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, a notable decline from the 1.7 percent figure from the 12 months ending October. The index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, compared to 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending October.
emphasis added
I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decrease for CPI, and at the forecast of a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

Energy prices have also declined significantly in December, and CPI will fall further - but the key is to focus on the core measures.