Thursday, November 27, 2014

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Strongest November since 2001"

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2014 08:02:00 PM

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.

Note:  There were 25 selling days in November this year compared to 26 last year.

Here are a few forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Could Reach 17 Million for Second Time in Four Months

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate for just the second time since 2006, after crossing that threshold most recently in August, when deliveries equated to a 17.4 million SAAR. The WardsAuto report is calling for 1.29 million light vehicles to be delivered over 25 selling days. The resulting daily sales rate of 51,461 units represents an 8.1% improvement over same-month year-ago (over 26 days) and a 9.1% month-to-month gain on October (27 days), slightly ahead of an average 6% October-November gain over the past three years. The 17 million-unit SAAR would be significantly higher than the 16.3 million recorded year-to-date through October, and would help bring 2014 sales in line with WardsAuto’s full year forecast of 16.4 million units.
From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest November Since 2001
New-vehicle retail sales in November 2014 are projected to come in at 1.1 million units, a 5.5 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis, compared with November 2013 (November 2014 has one fewer selling day than November 2013).
...
“The industry continues to demonstrate strong sales growth, which is exceptional considering that November is currently on pace to record the highest average customer-facing transaction prices ever,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. [Total forecast 16.5 million SAAR]
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Vehicle Sales To Rise 2.2 Percent In November On Black Friday Deals, According To Kelley Blue Book
In November 2014, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,270,000 units, up 2.2 percent from November 2013, and down 0.6 percent from October 2014. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November 2014 is estimated to be 16.8 million, up from 16.2 million in November 2013, and up from 16.3 million in October 2014.
From TrueCar: TrueCar Forecasts 17 Million SAAR in November as Early Black Friday Events Prime the Market
TrueCar, Inc. ... forecasts the pace of auto sales in November accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate ("SAAR") of 17 million new units with the early launch of Black Friday sales campaigns.

New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,296,700 units for the month, up 4.1 percent from a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, with one less selling day this November, deliveries are expected to rise 8.2 percent. ... Best November since 2001
Another strong month for auto sales, and 2014 should be the best year since 2006.