Saturday, November 22, 2014

Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/22/2014 06:05:00 PM

Update 11/26/2014 for Merrill Lynch  (minor downward revisions) and Fannie Mae (no changes)

Update 11/24/2014: I've added Metrostudy's forecast.

Update: I've added the MBA and Goldman Sachs forecasts.  Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and total housing starts will be close to 1 million.  No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high).

In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.

Note: Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays were the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2015.

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2014

From NAHB: Single-Family Production Poised to Take Off in 2015

I don't have Moody's Analytics' forecast, but Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics said today "that single-family starts could be closing in on 1 million units by the end of 2015 and multifamily production could go as high as 500,000 units."  That seems too high.

I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2015.

Housing Forecasts for 2015
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Fannie Mae5237831,1704.9%2
Goldman Sachs521
1,1663.1%
Merrill Lynch5301,1753.7%
Metrostudy5157301,1003.9%4
MBA5037281,1083.0%2
NAHB5478021,158
NAR620
1,3004%3
Wells Fargo5307701,1603.3%
Zillow  2.4%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3NAR Median Home price
4Zillow Home Value Index, Oct 2014 to Oct 2015