Monday, November 24, 2014

Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report and much more

by Bill McBride on 11/24/2014 08:11:00 PM

There has been little precipitation in California so far this year - following three years of drought - from the NY Times: As Snow Fades, California Ski Resorts Are Left High and Very Dry

The season is just starting, and snow may yet pile high, but the harvest in California the last three years was bleak, and the globe’s long-range forecast is grim.

Last year’s snow pack at the University of California, Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Lab, in the heart of California ski country near Lake Tahoe, topped out at a depth of 133 centimeters (about 52 inches), the second lowest of the last 90 years. With most of the snow arriving late in the season, skier and snowboarder visits in this area were down by 25 percent from the season before, according to the National Ski Area Association.

Similarly meager snow packs in 2012 and 2013 have exacerbated the statewide drought, with ramifications far beyond the ski industry. A fourth lackluster season would be unprecedented, according to snow records kept since 1879.
The article is about ski resorts, but the main impact of another year of drought will be on agriculture and food prices (California is by far the largest agricultural producing State).

• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2014 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2014 (preliminary estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q3, revised down from the advance estimate of 3.5%.

• At 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for September 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

• Also at 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September prices. The consensus is for a 4.5% year-over-year increase in the National Index for September, down from 5.1% in August (consensus 4.8% increase in Comp 20). The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 4.7% year-over-year in September, and for prices to increase 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• At 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for November.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The consensus is for the index to increase to 95.7 from 94.5.

• At 11:00 AM, the NY Fed Q3 2014 Household Debt and Credit Report. The New York Fed will also release an accompanying blog, which will analyze household deleveraging.