Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Thursday: Job Openings, Unemployment Claims

by Bill McBride on 11/12/2014 08:04:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos as the WSJ: Elevated Level of Part-Time Employment: Post-Recession Norm?

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply over the past year, but that improvement is masking a still-bleak picture for millions of workers who say they can’t find full-time jobs.
...
The situation of these so-called involuntary part-time workers—those who would prefer to work more than 34 hours a week—has economists puzzling over whether a higher level of part-time employment might be a permanent legacy of the great recession. If so, it could force more workers to choose between underemployment or working multiple jobs to make ends meet, leading to less income growth and weaker discretionary spending.
Every month I post a graph of those working part time for economic reasons. Here is the October graph:

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged in October at 7.0 million.
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 7.027 million from 7.103 million in September. 

Although this is still very high, it is important to note that "normal" is probably in the 4 to 5 million range.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 275 thousand from 278 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS. Note that the recent employment report was for October. Jobs openings increased in August to 4.835 million from 4.605 million in July. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 23% year-over-year. Quits were up 5% year-over-year.

• At 2:00 PM, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for October.