Sunday, November 23, 2014

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 11/23/2014 07:30:00 PM

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy

Last year Americans consumed 135 billion gallons of gasoline. That means that if prices stay where they are, consumers will have an extra $108 billion each year to spend on other things. And if the historical pattern holds, spend it they will.
...
[A]nother thing that’s changed is that much more of the oil we consume is now being produced right here at home. While lower prices are a boon for consumers, they pose a potential threat to producers ... Nevertheless, there should be no question that at this point this is a favorable development on-balance for the U.S. economy. We’re still importing 5 million more barrels each day of petroleum and products than we are exporting. Importing fewer barrels, and paying less for the barrels we do import, is a good thing.
Overall a nice boost for the U.S. economy.

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of November 16th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are also up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up a little over the last week with WTI futures at $76.58 per barrel and Brent at $80.04 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $108 - so prices are down more than 20%  year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $2.82 per gallon (down about 30 cents from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.



Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com