by Bill McBride on 11/29/2014 01:21:00 PM
Saturday, November 29, 2014
The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.
Other key reports include the November ISM manufacturing index on Monday, November vehicle sales on Tuesday, the November ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the October Trade Deficit on Friday.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for a decrease to 58.2 from 59.0 in October.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated solid expansion in October at 59.0%. The employment index was at 55.5%, and the new orders index was at 65.8%.
All day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.5 million SAAR in November from 16.3 million in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 226,000 payroll jobs added in November, down from 230,000 in October.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for a reading of 57.7, up from 57.1 in October. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.
2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 300 thousand from 313 thousand.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 225,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November, up from the 214,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.7% in November.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In October, the year-over-year change was 2.64 million jobs, and it appears the pace of hiring is increasing. Right now it looks like 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment growth.
As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should eventually start to pickup.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through August. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.5 billion in October from $43.0 billion in September.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for October. The consensus is for a 0.1 decrease in October orders.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for October from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $16.3 billion.