Friday, November 28, 2014

Possible Headline for Next Friday: "Best Year for Employment since the '90s"

by Bill McBride on 11/28/2014 03:05:00 PM

As of the October BLS report, the economy has added 2.225 million private sector jobs, and 2.285 million total jobs in 2014.

The consensus is the economy will add another 220 thousand jobs in November (215 thousand private sector jobs).   If that happens, 2014 will be the best year for private employment since 1999.

Here is a table showing the best years for nonfarm employment growth since 1995. To be the best year since the '90s, the economy needs to add an additional 222 thousand total nonfarm jobs. This could happen in the November report to be released next Friday, December 5th or in the December employment report to be released in early January.

This is happening with only 60 thousand public sector jobs added so far this year.  For comparison, there were 186 thousand public sector jobs added in 2005


Top Years Since 1995
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls per Year (000s)
YearTotal Nonfarm
Employment
19973,408
19993,177
19983,047
19962,825
20052,506
20132,331
201412,285
20122,236
19952,159
1 2014 is through October.

For private employment, to be the best year since the '90s, the economy needs to add an additional 176 thousand private sector jobs (probably happen in the November report).

There is a small chance that 2014 will be the best year since 1998 for private employment.  However it would take an additional 491 thousand private sector jobs added in November and December (it would take 505 thousand additional jobs to be the best since 1997).  That would be a very strong finish to the year - unlikely, but not impossible.

Top Years Since 1995
Change in Private Payrolls per Year (000s)
YearPrivate
Employment
19973,213
19982,734
19962,720
19992,716
20112,400
20132,365
20052,320
20122,294
201412,225
19952,081
1 2014 is through October.

Right now it seems very likely that 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment.