Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Lawler: Updated Read on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales in October

by Bill McBride on 11/19/2014 06:15:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on state and local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I have increased my estimate of October existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million (my estimate in last Friday’s report was 5.28 million). I also now “guesstimate” that the NAR’s existing home inventory number for October will be down 3.5% from September, and up 5.2% from last October. Finally, I project that the NAR’s median existing SF home sales price for October will be about 4% higher than last October.

CR Note: Existing home sales will be released tomorrow, and the consensus has moved up since Friday, and is now at 5.15 million.

Lawler also sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for selected cities in October.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales.

Short sales are down significantly in these areas.

Foreclosures are up in several of these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Oct-14Oct-13Oct-14Oct-13Oct-14Oct-13Oct-14Oct-13
Las Vegas10.6%21.0%8.9%6.0%19.5%27.0%35.1%44.9%
Reno**6.0%16.0%4.0%4.0%10.0%20.0%   
Phoenix3.7%8.4%6.2%6.9%9.9%15.3%27.7%31.6%
Sacramento6.1%13.7%6.3%5.9%12.4%19.6%20.6%23.9%
Minneapolis2.7%5.1%9.8%16.4%12.5%21.5%   
Mid-Atlantic 4.8%8.2%10.0%7.9%14.9%16.1%19.2%19.9%
Orlando5.2%15.5%26.7%20.7%31.8%36.2%41.8%47.8%
California *6.1%10.3%5.3%6.7%11.4%17.0%   
Bay Area CA*3.5%7.3%2.7%3.7%6.2%11.0%   
So. California*5.9%10.8%4.8%6.3%10.7%17.1%   
Miami MSA SF8.3%16.3%19.5%15.1%27.8%31.4%39.3%46.4%
Miami MSA C/TH4.9%11.3%23.4%18.3%28.3%29.6%69.3%73.1%
Tucson            26.8%32.1%
Toledo            38.2%37.1%
Wichita            28.9%30.5%
Des Moines            18.8%20.2%
Peoria            22.8%21.1%
Georgia***            27.8%N/A
Omaha            18.5%20.0%
Pensacola            33.5%33.7%
Knoxville            24.7%26.5%
Memphis*    13.3%19.8%       
Birmingham AL    15.2%21.0%       
Springfield IL**    8.3%15.3%       
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS