Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in September

by Bill McBride on 11/25/2014 09:14:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Broad-based Slowdown for Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the September 2014 index data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... Results show that home prices continue to decelerate. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in August. The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.

The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in September. Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn while the National Index posted a -0.1% change for the month. Charlotte and Miami led all cities in September with increases of 0.6%. Atlanta and Washington D.C. offset those gains by reporting decreases of 0.3% and 0.4%. ...

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.8% annual gain in September 2014. The 10- and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 4.8% and 4.9%.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 18.5% from the peak, and up 0.3% in September (SA). The Composite 10 is up 23.3% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 17.6% from the peak, and up 0.3% (SA) in September. The Composite 20 is up 24.2% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The National index is off 10.4% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in September.  The National index is up 21.0% from the post-bubble low set in Dec 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.9% compared to September 2013.

The Composite 20 SA is up 4.9% compared to September 2013.

The National index SA is up 4.8% compared to September 2013.

Prices increased (SA) in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in September seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 9 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 42.3% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was above than the consensus forecast for a 4.5% YoY increase for the National index, and suggests a further slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.