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Thursday, September 25, 2014

CoreLogic: "Nearly 950,000 homes returned to positive equity in the second quarter of 2014"

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2014 09:30:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 946,000 Residential Properties Regained $1 Trillion in Total Equity in Q2 2014

CoreLogic ... today released new analysis showing nearly 950,000 homes returned to positive equity in the second quarter of 2014, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity in the U.S. to more than 44 million. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by approximately $1 trillion in Q2 2014. The CoreLogic analysis indicates that approximately 5.3 million homes, or 10.7 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage, were still in negative equity as of Q2 2014 compared to 6.3 million homes, or 12.7 percent, for Q1 2014. This compares to a negative equity share of 14.9 percent, or 7.2 million homes, in Q2 2013, representing a year-over-year decrease in the number of homes underwater by almost 2 million (1,962,435), or 4.2 percent.

... Of the 44 million residential properties with positive equity, approximately 9 million, or 19 percent, have less than 20-percent equity (referred to as “under-equitied”) and 1.3 million of those have less than 5 percent (referred to as near-negative equity). Borrowers who are “under-equitied” may have a more difficult time refinancing their existing homes or obtaining new financing to sell and buy another home due to underwriting constraints. Borrowers with near-negative equity are considered at risk of moving into negative equity if home prices fall. In contrast, if home prices rose by as little as 5 percent, an additional 1 million homeowners now in negative equity would regain equity. ...

"The increase in borrower equity of $1 trillion from a year earlier is evidence that things are moving solidly in the right direction,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “Borrower equity is important because home equity constitutes borrowers’ largest investment segment and, as a result, is driving forward the rise in wealth for the typical homeowner.”
emphasis added

CoreLogic, Negative Equity by StateClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the break down of negative equity by state. Note: Data not available for some states. From CoreLogic:

"Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgaged properties in negative equity at 26.3 percent, followed by Florida (24.3 percent), Arizona (19.0 percent), Illinois (15.4 percent) and Rhode Island (14.8). These top five states combined account for 32.8 percent of negative equity in the United States."

Note: The share of negative equity is still very high in Nevada and Florida, but down significantly from a year ago (Q2 2013) when the negative equity share in Nevada was at 36.4 percent, and at 31.5 percent in Florida.

CoreLogic, LTVThe second graph shows the distribution of home equity in Q2 compared to Q1 2014. Close to 4% of residential properties have 25% or more negative equity, down from Q1.

In Q2 2013, there were 7.2 million properties with negative equity - now there are 5.3 million.  A significant change.