Thursday, August 28, 2014

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

by Bill McBride on 8/28/2014 07:46:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for an increase to 56.0, up from 52.6 in July.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 80.3, up from the preliminary reading of 79.2, and down from the July reading of 82.5.

And on the GDP revision from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2014 (Preliminary Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.0 percent. With this second estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in nonresidential fixed investment was larger than previously estimated, while the increase in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated
Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates.

Below is a table comparing the contributions to the percent change for a few categories.  Less inventory, more investment ... a positive.

Revision: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
  Advance2nd ReleaseRevision
GDP, Percent change at annual rate:4.04.20.2
PCE, Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures1.691.690.0
Investment, Percentage points at annual rates:
Nonresidential Structures0.150.260.11
Equipment0.400.590.19
Intellectual property products0.140.170.03
Residential0.230.22-.01
Change in private inventories1.661.39-0.27
Trade, Percentage points at annual rates:
Net exports of goods and services-0.61-0.430.18
Government, Percentage points at annual rates:
Federal Government-0.05-0.06-0.01
State and Local0.350.33-0.02

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