Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in June

by Bill McBride on 7/29/2014 09:00:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released this morning. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast: Expecting Further Slowdowns Ahead

The Case-Shiller data for May 2014 came out this morning, and based on this information and the June 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released July 20th), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (June 2014) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 8.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from May to June will be flat for the 20-City Composite Index and 0.1 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for June will not be released until Tuesday, August 26.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in June than in May (9.3% year-over-year).

Zillow June 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
  Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
June
2013
173.17171.70159.46157.92
Case-Shiller
(last month)
May
2014
185.33185.79170.64171.04
Zillow ForecastYoY8.1%8.1%8.1%8.1%
MoM1.0%0.1%1.0%0.0%
Zillow Forecasts1  187.2185.8172.4171.0
Current Post Bubble Low  146.45149.87134.07137.13
Date of Post Bubble Low  Mar-12Feb-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low  27.8%24.0%28.6%24.6%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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