Thursday, July 24, 2014

New Home Sales decrease to 406,000 Annual Rate in June

by Bill McBride on 7/24/2014 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 406 thousand.

May sales were revised down from 504 thousand to 442 thousand, and April sales were revised down from 425 thousand to 408 thousand.

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 406,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent below the revised May rate of 442,000 and is 11.5 percent below the June 2013 estimate of 459,000.
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the previous two years, new home sales are still close to the bottom for previous recessions.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in June to 5.8 months from 5.2 months in May.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 197,000. This represents a supply of 5.8 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, InventoryOn inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In June 2014 (red column), 38 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 43 thousand homes were also sold in June. The high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and 2011.

This was well below expectations of 475,000 sales in June, and sales were down 11.5% year-over-year.

I'll have more later today .