Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Existing Home Sales in June: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory up 6.5% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 7/22/2014 10:14:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Up in June, Unsold Inventory Shows Continued Progress

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, climbed 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in June from an upwardly-revised 4.91 million in May. Sales are at the highest pace since October 2013 (5.13 million), but remain 2.3 percent below the 5.16 million-unit level a year ago. ...

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.2 percent to 2.30 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.5-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from May. Unsold inventory is 6.5 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.16 million existing homes available for sale.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in June (5.04 million SAAR) were 2.6% higher than last month, but were 2.3% below the June 2013 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.30 million in June from 2.25 million in May.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory increased 6.5% year-over-year in June compared to June 2013.  

Months of supply was at 5.5 months in June.

This was above expectations of sales of 4.99 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and inventory is still low, but up solidly year-over-year.    I'll have more later ...