by Bill McBride on 5/01/2014 03:14:00 PM
Thursday, May 01, 2014
Based on an AutoData estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.04 million SAAR in April. That is up 5.5% from April 2013, and down 2% from the sales rate last month.
This was below the consensus forecast of 16.2 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for April (red, light vehicle sales of 16.04 million SAAR from AutoData).
Severe weather clearly impacted sales in January and February, and some of the increase in March was probably a bounce back due to better weather. Sales in April were probably a return to trend.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.
Unlike residential investment, auto sales bounced back fairly quickly following the recession and were a key driver of the recovery.
Looking forward, the growth rate will slow for auto sales, and most forecasts are for around a small gain in 2014 to around 16.1 million light vehicles.