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Thursday, May 01, 2014

Lawler: Large home builders net orders last quarter "vitually flat" from year ago

by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2014 12:17:00 PM

M.D.C. Holdings reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2014 totaled 1,236, down 4.9% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Net orders per active community were down 9.6% from a year ago. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 19% last quarter, up slightly from 18% a year earlier. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 873, down 14.2% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sale price of $377,000, up 11.1% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of March was 1,625, down 15.7% from last March. M.D.C. owned or controlled 16,043 lots at the end of March, up 25.9% from a year ago, and the company’s active community count at the end of March was 157, up 13% from last March.

M.D.C. attributed the increase in its average sales price both to price appreciation in “many” of its markets and to a shift in the mix of homes closed. The biggest YOY declines in net orders per active community were in Nevada, Virginia, Maryland, and Arizona.

Beazer Homes reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2014 totaled 1,390, down 8.6% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Beazer’s net orders per community last quarter were down 2.9% from a year earlier. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 19.4% last quarter, up slightly from 18.7% a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 977 last quarter, down 13.3% from the comparable quarter of 2013, at an average sales price of $272,400, up 7.5% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of March was 2,163, down 2.2% from last March. Beazer owned or controlled 29,331 lots at the end of March, up 18.8% from last March.

Below are some summary stats for 8 large publicly-traded home builders.

As the table indicates, net orders at these eight builders combined last quarter were virtually flat from the comparable quarter of last year. While not all of these builders released active community count numbers, based on conference call comments I estimate that net orders per community for the eight builders as a whole last quarter were down about 6% from a year ago.

 Net OrdersSettlementsAverage Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:3/143/13% Chg3/143/13% Chg3/143/13% Chg
D.R. Horton8,5697,8798.8%6,1945,46313.4%$271,230$242,54811.8%
Pulte
Group
4,8635,200-6.5%3,4363,833-10.4%$317,000$287,00010.5%
NVR3,3253,510-5.3%2,2112,272-2.7%$361,400$330,4009.4%
The Ryland Group2,1862,0526.5%1,4701,31511.8%$327,000$277,00018.1%
Meritage Homes1,5251,547-1.4%1,1091,0525.4%$365,896$314,36316.4%
M/I Homes9821,047-6.2%73762717.5%$299,000$284,0005.3%
Total21,45021,2351.0%15,15714,5624.1%$308,445$278,04010.9%