Thursday, March 27, 2014

Q4 GDP Revised up to 2.6%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 311,000

by Bill McBride on 3/27/2014 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2013 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2013

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains largely the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was larger than previously estimated, while private investment in inventories and in intellectual property products were smaller than previously estimated ...
Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 2.6% to 3.3%. Private investment was revised down.

The DOL reports:
In the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 321,000. The 4-week moving average was 317,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 327,250.
The previous week was revised up from 320,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 317,750.

This was below the consensus forecast of 325,000.  The 4-week average is moving down and is close to normal levels during an expansion.

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