by Bill McBride on 2/25/2014 11:40:00 AM
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
I've been hearing reports of a slowdown in house price increases (more than the usual seasonal slowdown), and perhaps this slowdown in price increases is finally showing up in the Case-Shiller index. This makes sense since inventory is starting to increase.
According to Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko, asking price increases have slowed down recently, and Kolko expects that price slowdown will "hit Feb sales prices and get reported in April index releases".
It might take a few months, but I also expect to see smaller year-over-year price increases going forward.
Note: There was a small Not Seasonally Adjusted decline in December, but that decline was smaller than usual - and prices are still increasing fairly quickly on a seasonally adjusted basis.
I also think it is important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted). Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices. As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $276,000 today adjusted for inflation (about 38%). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).
Earlier: Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.4% year-over-year in December
Nominal House Prices
The first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q4 2013), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through December) in nominal terms as reported.
In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to Q1 2004 levels (and also back up to Q3 2008), and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to July 2004 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to September 2004.
Real House Prices
The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.
In real terms, the National index is back to Q2 2001 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to May 2002, and the CoreLogic index back to May 2002.
In real terms, house prices are back to early '00s levels.
In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.
Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.
This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).
On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q2 2001 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to Sept 2002 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to September 2002.
In real terms - and as a price-to-rent ratio - prices are mostly back to early 2000 levels.
Nominal Prices: Cities relative to Jan 2000
The last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.
As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 44% above January 2000 (44% nominal gain in 14 years).
These are nominal prices, and as I noted above real prices (adjusted for inflation) are up about 38% since January 2000 - so the increase in Phoenix from January 2000 until now is just a little above the change in overall prices due to inflation.
Two cities - Denver (up 46% since Jan 2000) and Dallas (up 33% since Jan 2000) - are above the bubble highs (no other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city is very close). Denver is up slightly more than inflation over that period, and Dallas slightly less. Detroit prices are still below the January 2000 level.