Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Trade Deficit decreased in November to $34.3 Billion

by Bill McBride on 1/07/2014 08:44:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported this morning:

[T]otal November exports of $194.9 billion and imports of $229.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $34.3 billion, down from $39.3 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.7 billion more than October exports of $193.1 billion. November imports were $3.4 billion less than October imports of $232.5 billion.
The trade deficit was less than the consensus forecast of $39.9 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2013.

U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Imports decreased, and exports increased in November.  

Exports are 17% above the pre-recession peak and up 5% compared to November 2012; imports are just below the pre-recession peak, and down about 1% compared to November 2012. 

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through November.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $94.69 in November, down from $99.96 in October, and down from $97.45 in November 2012.  The petroleum deficit has generally been declining and is the major reason the overall deficit has declined since early 2012.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $26.9 billion in November, down from $28.9 billion in November 2012.  A majority of the trade deficit is related to China.

Overall it appears exports are picking up a little again.

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