Friday, January 24, 2014

Q4 GDP Seen at 3.8%

by Bill McBride on 1/24/2014 09:09:00 AM

Next week will be busy with another FOMC meeting (more tapering) and plenty of data releases.

From Merill Lynch on Q4 GDP:

We look for the first estimate of 4Q GDP to show solid growth of 3.8%. Of course, there is greater room for forecast error with the first release since a number of inputs are estimates (particularly trade and inventory data). That said, we forecast a strong gain in consumer spending, reflecting the healthy retail sales data and holiday shopping season. We also look for equipment and software investment to strengthen, as suggested by the pop higher in core capital goods orders. The trade deficit should narrow due to strong global growth but also a continued decline in US imports of petroleum. Inventory should remain little changed at very high levels, which we believe is unintentional. We think businesses will look to reduce inventories to more sustainable levels in the next few quarters. Overall, the report should show a healthy end to 2013 and momentum heading into 2014.
emphasis added
That would put 2013 real GDP growth at about 2.0% (over 2012).

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