by Bill McBride on 1/02/2014 09:02:00 PM
Thursday, January 02, 2014
From NDD at the Bonddad Blog: Calculated Risk and I have made a bet on housing's direction in 2014
Both of us thought that housing was in a bubble in 2005. Both of us thought in 2011 that housing prices would bottom in early 2012.It is possible that we both will win (and two charities will receive donations). I'll update everyone in 2014.
But we have totally different opinions about the direction of housing in 2014.
So here are the terms of our bet: If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, I will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.
Note that since our forecasts are not mirror images of one another, it is possible that both or us will win this bet. Or neither!
• All day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.0 million SAAR in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 16.3 million SAAR in November. I'll post a graph - probably around 3 PM ET.
• 2:30 PM, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks, The Changing Federal Reserve: Past, Present, Future, At the American Economic Association Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Posted by Bill McBride on 1/02/2014 09:02:00 PM