Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 12/18/2013 08:32:00 PM

A prediction: When the NAR releases the November existing home sales report tomorrow showing a decline in sales, some reporters will question the "housing recovery".

 First, for jobs and GDP, the housing recovery is about "residential investment", and that mostly means housing starts and new home sales. Second, a decline in existing home sales could be good news, if the decline is mostly related to fewer distressed sales - and if conventional sales are increasing.

I've been pounding on those two themes for some time, but not everyone got the memo :-).

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 337 thousand from 368 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.02 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in October were at a 5.12 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler is forecasting the NAR will report sales of 4.98 million SAAR in November.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

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