Friday, December 06, 2013

November Employment Report: 203,000 Jobs, 7.0% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 12/06/2013 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
...
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.
...
The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in October. The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November. Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month. This over-the-month increase in employment partly reflected the return to work of furloughed federal government employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6 percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000 to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 8,000 higher than previously reported.
The headline number was above expectations of 180,000 payroll jobs added.

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

Employment is less than 1% below the pre-recession peak.

Payroll jobs added per month
NOTE: The second graph is ex-Census meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed to show the underlying payroll changes.

The third shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in November to 7.0% from 7.3% in October.

unemployment rate This increase in the unemployment rate in October was related to the government shutdown - and was reversed in the November employment report.

The fourth graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in November to 63.0% from 62.8% in October (October decline was partially related to shutdown). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. 

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although a significant portion of the recent decline is due to demographics.


The Employment-Population ratio increased in November to 58.6% from 58.3% in October (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

This was another solid employment report.  Many of the negatives in the October report were related to the government shutdown and were mostly reversed in the November report.  I'll have much more later ...

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