Sunday, December 29, 2013

Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 12/29/2013 08:28:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Home Prices Back at Peaks in Some Areas

The 10 metro areas enjoying a full-scale rebound are based on figures for the entire region. The Wall Street Journal also analyzed Zillow price data individually in more than 4,400 cities and towns in the country's largest metro areas. Nearly 10% of municipalities have seen prices reach new highs this year when compared with their previous peak, and prices are within 5% of their previous highs in 300 more.

These cities are largely exceptions, and prices in many parts of the U.S. are still well below their peak. In some 1,500 cities, values are still at least 25% lower than their previous highs. Nationally, values fell 23.8% between 2007 and 2011 before rebounding 9.9% after hitting bottom in late 2011; they are now 16.3% below the high of the last decade, according to Zillow.
The story has this example:
At the top of the housing bubble in 2006, Mr. Long paid $667,500 for a five-bedroom home in Lafayette, Colo., which is about 20 miles northwest of Denver. Prices then fell 12% through 2011. This summer, he sold the home for $710,000.
That is a price increase of about 6% over 7 years. Inflation was up 15% over the same period, so in real terms, Mr. Long sold at a loss (he probably also had significant transaction fees). But people think in nominal terms ... and prices are at new nominal highs in a few areas.

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is a reading of 4.0, up from 1.9 in November (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29th, Happy New Year!

Question #8 for 2014: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2014?

The Nikkei is up about 0.6%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are up 8 (fair value).

Oil prices have been moving up with WTI futures at $100.23 per barrel and Brent at $112.22 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.29 per gallon.  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.



Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com