by Bill McBride on 12/19/2013 04:12:00 PM
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for November since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.
Click on graph for larger image.
On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 1.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in October. Outbound traffic increased 1.3% compared to 12 months ending in October.
In general, inbound traffic has been increasing and outbound traffic had been mostly moving sideways.
The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).
Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).
Inbound traffic was up 13% compared to November 2012 and outbound traffic was up 17%.
This suggests a pickup in trade in November.