Thursday, December 05, 2013

Friday: Employment Report, Personal Income and Outlays

by Bill McBride on 12/05/2013 06:57:00 PM

A couple more employment previews, first from David Mericle at Goldman Sachs:

We expect a 175k gain in both nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls in November, a bit below consensus expectations of 185k and a modest slowdown from the 204k gain seen in October. ... We expect that the unemployment rate will decline to 7.1% in November, reflecting both employment gains and the possibility that some of the decline in participation seen in October's distorted household survey will persist this month.
And from Merrill Lynch:
We are looking for job growth of 175,000 in November, a slight slowdown from the 204,000 pace in October. The unemployment rate should fall to 7.2% from 7.3% while the workweek holds steady at 34.4 hours. ... Looking back at the recent history, when Thanksgiving is late in the month, there seems to be a downward bias in retail jobs in November and a reversal in December. The reverse is the case when the Thanksgiving holiday is early in the month, as it was last year. This could account for a swing of as many as 40,000 jobs. ... The household survey was distorted in the October report, leading to a sharp decline in the labor force and in the number of employed workers. This bias will be reversed in November as people returned to work after the shutdown. We therefore expect the participation rate to jump back to 63.1%, nearly returning to the September pace.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, down from the 204,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.2% in November from 7.3% in October. A key will be if the participation rate increases too, reversing the sharp decline last month.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for December). The consensus is for a reading of 75.5, up from 75.1 in November.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for October from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $15.0 billion in October.