Monday, December 16, 2013

FNC: House prices increased 6.5% year-over-year in October

by Bill McBride on 12/16/2013 08:10:00 PM

Tuesday:
• 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Price Index for November. The consensus is for no change in CPI in November and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

• 10:00 AM, the December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 55, up from 54.0 in November. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

From FNC: FNC Index: October Home Prices Up; Pace Slows

The latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI) shows October home prices are up, albeit at a slower pace than previous months. The index, constructed to gauge underlying property value based on non-distressed home sales, showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase from September to October—its weakest acceleration in eight months.

The deceleration in the pace of price increase is expected as the housing market heads into the winter low season after strong growth in the spring and summer. Sustained by moderate economic growth and job creation, housing market fundamentals are expected to improve continually as indicators of distressed mortgages and home foreclosures continue to point to new lows. As of October, completed foreclosure sales nationwide contributed 13.9% to total home sales, up slightly from September’s 13.4% but down from 17.0% a year ago. The uptick in completed foreclosure sales is primarily a seasonal trend as banks tend to dispose of distressed properties more quickly in winter months. In another sign of slower housing activity and weakening price growth, the average asking-price discount has been trending higher in recent months....

Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC 100-MSA composite index shows that October home prices increased from the previous month at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.3%. The two narrower RPI indices (30- and 10-MSA composites) also rose at a slower pace than previous months. On a year-over-year basis (YOY), home prices continue to accelerate moderately, up 6.5% from the same period a year ago, the fastest growth in more than seven years. (August 2006 was the last time the YOY growth measured similar magnitude.) The 30-MSA and 10-MSA composites recorded slightly faster YOY price appreciation.
emphasis added
The 100-MSA composite was up 6.5% compared to October 2012. The FNC index turned positive on a year-over-year basis in July, 2012.

FNC House Price IndexClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the FNC Composite 10, 20, 30 and 100 indexes. 

Even with the recent increase, the FNC composite 100 index is still off 25.2% from the peak.

I expect all of the housing price indexes to show lower year-over-year price gains soon.