Monday, December 16, 2013

DataQuick on SoCal: November Home Sales Down 10.4% year-over-year, Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007

by Bill McBride on 12/16/2013 03:08:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Drop; Median Sale Price Edges Sideways - Again

Southern California’s housing market downshifted last month, with sales falling well below a year earlier as investor activity waned again and buyers continued to struggle with higher prices and a thin supply of homes for sale. ... A total of 17,283 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 14.2 percent from 20,150 sales in October, and down 10.4 percent from 19,285 sales in November 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Last month’s sales were 19.8 percent below the average number of sales – 21,559 – in the month of November. Southland sales haven’t been above average for any particular month in more than seven years. November sales have ranged from a low of 13,173 in November 2007 to high of 31,987 in November 1988.

Foreclosure resales – homes foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 6.3 percent of the Southland resale market in November. That was the same as in October and was down from 15.4 percent a year earlier. The October/November foreclosure resale rate was the lowest since it was 5.5 percent in May 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 12.7 percent of Southland resales last month. That was the lowest since October 2008, when it was also 12.7 percent. Last month’s short sale figure was down from an estimated 12.9 percent the month before and down from 26.6 percent a year earlier.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 26.1 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That’s the lowest share for any month since it was 25.1 percent in November 2011
. Last month’s absentee level was down from a revised 27.1 percent the month before and down from 28.7 percent a year earlier. The absentee share has trended lower almost every month this year since hitting a record 32.4 percent this January. The monthly average since 2000, when the absentee data begin, is 18.5 percent.
emphasis added
Both distress sales and investor buying is declining - and this is dragging down overall sales (plus inventory is still very low).    However conventional sales are up about 25% year-over-year (a positive sign).