In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

LA area Port Traffic in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2013 10:14:00 AM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for October since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

LA Area Port TrafficClick on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was unchanged in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September.   Outbound traffic decreased slightly compared to September.

In general, inbound traffic has been increasing  and outbound traffic had been declining slightly.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

LA Area Port TrafficUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

This suggests an increase in the trade deficit with Asia for October - and possibly a fairly strong retailer buying for the holiday season.