Friday, November 15, 2013

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in October

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2013 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having increased 0.7 percent in September. Manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent in October for its third consecutive monthly gain. The index for mining fell 1.6 percent after having risen for six consecutive months, and the output of utilities dropped 1.1 percent after having jumped 4.5 percent in September. The level of the index for total industrial production in October was equal to its 2007 average and was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.2 percentage point in October to 78.1 percent, a rate 1.1 percentage points above its level of a year earlier and 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2012) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.1 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.1% is still 2.1 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased 0.1% in October to 99.98. This is 19.4% above the recession low, but still slightly, 0.8%, below the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were below expectations. The consensus was for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production in October, and for Capacity Utilization to be at 78.3%.