Tuesday, October 22, 2013

September Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs, 7.2% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 10/22/2013 09:01:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +104,000 to +89,000, and the change for August was revised from +169,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 9,000 more than previously reported.
The headline number was below expectations of 180,000 payroll jobs added.

Payroll jobs added per month Click on graph for larger image.

NOTE: This graph is ex-Census meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed to show the underlying payroll changes.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate declined in September to 7.2% from 7.3% in August.

unemployment rate This is the lowest level for the unemployment rate since November 2008.

The unemployment rate is from the household report.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in September at 63.2%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. 

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although a significant portion of the recent decline is due to demographics.


The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged in September at 58.6% from (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.


Percent Job Losses During Recessions The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

This was another weaker than expected employment report.  I'll have much more later ...

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