Friday, October 04, 2013

Fed's Lockhart: No Jobs Report, Fed "more cautious"

by Bill McBride on 10/04/2013 08:28:00 AM

It is pretty clear - no jobs report, no taper. The September report is delayed, but - important - if the shutdown impacts data collection for October (the week including the 12th of the month), there might not be an October report.

From the WSJ: No Jobs Report Complicates Fed's Thinking

"If this lasts for several more days" or weeks, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Thursday, "by the end of October we will still be looking at a very ambiguous situation."

"Less data is not helpful in gauging where the economy is and where it's going," said Mr. Lockhart, whose views often represent the emerging consensus at the central bank. "So that would tend to make me somewhat more cautious." ...
Beyond the loss of economic data, the shutdown could also act as a drag on economic growth, Mr. Lockhart said.

"It's a little early to draw any conclusions," Mr. Lockhart said. "If it's protracted then I would expect that there would be some measurable impact at least on fourth-quarter growth."
And on the October employment report:
A shutdown lasting more than a few weeks could also cause headaches for the October jobs report, due out Nov. 1, said Keith Hall, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the jobs report. Government analysts are due to start the next survey of households in mid-October, muddying the data due to a delay in data collection.