Friday, September 27, 2013

Vehicle Sales: Likely Weaker Sales in September

by Bill McBride on 9/27/2013 03:01:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report September vehicle sales Tuesday, Oct 1st.

According the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), light vehicle sales in August were at a 16.0 million rate, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.  It looks like September sales will be somewhat softer.

Here are a few forecasts:

From Kelley Blue Book: September Auto Sales Expected To Dip 2 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book

"September 2013 new-vehicle sales represent the first year-over-year drop since May 2011, due to slower retail sales, two fewer sales days in the month, and this year's Labor Day sales included in August 2013 totals," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. ...

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September 2013 is estimated to be 15.7 million, up from 14.7 million in September 2012 and down from 16.0 million in August 2013.
From JD Power: Strong Labor Day Weekend Sales Pull Deliveries from September
Based on analysis of sales during the first two weeks of the month, new-vehicle sales are likely to reach nearly 1.33 million units, but may be weaker than in recent months due to strong Labor Day weekend sales that were tallied with August's robust sales totals.

"Although the year-over-year sales gain in September is smaller than has been observed in recent months, it's important to recognize that September reported sales are being heavily influenced by the [Labor Day weekend] quirk in the sales calendar," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.
From TrueCar: September 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Down 4.4 Percent According to TrueCar; September 2013 SAAR at 15.4M
For September 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,131,333 units, down 4.4 percent from September 2012 and also down 24.5% percent from August 2013 (on an unadjusted basis – September 2013 had 23 sales days, compared to 25 in September 2012).

The September 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.4 million new car sales, down about four percent from August 2013 and up about four percent over September 2012.
The analyst consensus is for sales of 16.0 million SAAR in September.

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