by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2013 02:20:00 PM

On Thursday the BLS will release the preliminary annual Benchmark Revision for the Current Employment Statistics. The final revision will be published next February when the January 2012 employment report is released. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. On September 26, 2013 at 10:00 a.m. the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series.

With the release of the final benchmark estimate in February, total payroll employment in March 2013 will changed by the amount of the revision. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2012).

For details on the benchmark revision process, see from the BLS Benchmark Article.

The following table shows the benchmark revisions since 1979. The BLS employment estimate tends to miss turning points - as an example the benchmark revisions were down in 2007 through 2010, and have been up for the last two years.   We see a similar pattern for previous recessions (like in the early '80s and early '90s).    My guess is the revision will be small this year.

A few months ago Josh Lehner looked at state level data and he thinks the revision will be positive again this year. Although he thinks the revision for government employees may be larger than normal due to the sequester. According to MarketWatch, economists at BNP Paribas expect a negative revision.

Year	Percent benchmark revision	Benchmark revision (in thousands)
1979	0.5	447
1980	-0.1	-63
1981	-0.4	-349
1982	-0.1	-113
1983	*	36
1984	0.4	353
1985	*	-3
1986	-0.5	-467
1987	*	-35
1988	-0.3	-326
1989	*	47
1990	-0.2	-229
1991	-0.6	-640
1992	-0.1	-59
1993	0.2	263
1994	0.7	747
1995	0.5	542
1996	*	57
1997	0.4	431
1998	*	44
1999	0.2	258
2000	0.4	468
2001	-0.1	-123
2002	-0.2	-313
2003	-0.2	-122
2004	0.2	203
2005	-0.1	-158
2006	0.6	752
2007	-0.2	-293
2008	-0.1	-89
2009	-0.7	-902
2010	-0.3	-378
2011	0.1	162
2012	0.3	424
2013	NA	NA
* less than 0.05%