by Bill McBride on 9/28/2013 03:37:00 PM
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in August to 2.64% from 2.70% in July. Freddie's rate is down from 3.36% in August 2012, and this is the lowest level since April 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
I'm frequently asked when the distressed sales will be back to normal levels, and that will happen when the percent of seriously delinquent loans (and in foreclosure) is closer to normal. Since very few seriously delinquent loans cure with the owner making up back payments - most of the reduction in the serious delinquency rate is from foreclosures, short sales, and modifications.
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for August next week.
Click on graph for larger image
Although this indicates some progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
At the recent rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be under 1% until 2016 or so. Therefore I expect a fairly high level of distressed sales for 2 to 3 more years (mostly in judicial states).