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Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace"

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2013 02:00:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and based on information collected on or before August 26, 2013."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of early July through late August. Eight Districts characterized growth as moderate; of the remaining four, Boston, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported modest growth, and Chicago indicated activity had improved. Consumer spending rose in most Districts, reflecting, in part, strong demand for automobiles and housing-related goods. Activity in the travel and tourism sector expanded in most areas. Demand for nonfinancial services, including professional and transportation services, increased slightly on net. Manufacturing activity expanded modestly. Residential real estate activity increased moderately in most Districts, and demand for nonresidential real estate gained overall. Lending activity was mixed. Lending standards were largely unchanged, while credit quality improved.
And on real estate:
Activity in residential real estate markets increased moderately. The pace of sales of existing single-family homes continued to increase moderately in most Districts. ... Reports from several Districts suggested that rising home prices and mortgage interest rates may have spurred a pickup in recent market activity, as many "fence sitters" were prompted to commit to purchases. Sales of new single-family homes stabilized during the past few months in the Cleveland District after accelerating earlier in the year. New home sales declined slightly in parts of the Philadelphia and Richmond Districts in July. Philadelphia conveyed that some borrowers apparently preferred to lock in a mortgage rate for an existing home rather than wait for a new home to be completed and chance higher mortgage rates. Home prices climbed in most Districts. Richmond and Boston reported that houses in some areas were staying on the market fewer days and increasingly receiving multiple offers. New York noted that bidding wars were common in the Buffalo area. Many Districts reported that limited inventories of desirable properties contributed to upward price pressures. Single-family home construction was strong in the Minneapolis and Dallas Districts, and Chicago reported that a number of builders are planning new developments to begin later this year. However, several Districts noted constraints on the construction of single-family homes. San Francisco pointed to shortages of construction workers. In the Kansas City District, some building materials, such as drywall and roofing shingles, were in short supply.

Demand for nonresidential real estate increased. Office vacancy rates and other indicators in markets for office space improved modestly in the major metropolitan markets in the New York, Richmond, and St. Louis and Districts. Rents for Class B office space in Manhattan have risen more than 10 percent over the past twelve months. Demand for commercial real estate showed strong growth in the Dallas District and moderate growth in the Minneapolis District. Both Districts reported new plans for construction of industrial space. Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco reported modest growth in demand for commercial real estate. Philadelphia highlighted a shift in recent leasing activity toward larger commercial spaces. The Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts all reported increases in construction of multifamily residential properties.
emphasis added
Overall this was similar to the previous beige book with economic activity increasing at a "modest to moderate" pace.