Tuesday, September 03, 2013

CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.4% Year-over-year in July

by Bill McBride on 9/03/2013 09:01:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports July Home Prices Rise by 12.4 Percent Year Over Year

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in July 2013 compared to July 2012. This change represents the 17th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.8 percent in July 2013 compared to June 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.4 percent in July 2013 compared to July 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.7 percent in July 2013 compared to June 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that August 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from August 2012 and rise by 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis from July 2013. Excluding distressed sales, August 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year over year from August 2012 and by 1.2 percent month over month from July 2013.
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“Home prices continued to surge in July,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Looking ahead to the second half of the year, price growth is expected to slow as seasonal demand wanes and higher mortgage rates have a marginal impact on home purchase demand.”
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.8% in July, and is up 12.4% over the last year.  This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this is usually the strongest time of the year for price increases.

The index is off 17.6% from the peak - and is up 22.8% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for seventeen consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

I expect the year-over-year price increases to slow in the coming months.

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