Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.4% year-over-year in July

by Bill McBride on 9/24/2013 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Steadily Rise in July 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through July 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed increases of 1.9% and 1.8% from June for the 10- and 20-City Composites. For at least four months in a row, all 20 cities showed monthly gains. Phoenix posted 22 consecutive months of positive returns. Although home prices in all the cities increased, 15 cities and both Composites saw these monthly rates decelerate in July versus June.

Over the last 12 months, prices rose 12.3% and 12.4% as measured by the 10- and 20-City Composites. ...

“Home prices gains are holding their 12% annual rate of gain established by the two Composite indices in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The Southwest continues to lead the housing recovery. Las Vegas home prices are up 27.5% year-over-year; in California, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego are up 24.8%, 20.8% and 20.4% respectively. However, all remain far below their peak levels.

“Since April 2013, all 20 cities are up month to month; however, the monthly rates of price gains have declined. More cities are experiencing slow gains each month than the previous month, suggesting that the rate of increase may have peaked."
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 23.7% from the peak, and up 0.7% in July (SA). The Composite 10 is up 15.7% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 23.0% from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in July. The Composite 20 is up 16.3% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 12.2% compared to July 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 12.4% compared to July 2012. This was the fourteenth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and it appears the YoY change might be starting to slow.

Prices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in July seasonally adjusted. (20 of 20 increased NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 50.1% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs.

This was at the consensus forecast for a 12.4% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.

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