Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Zillow: House Prices up 6% year-over-year in July, Case-Shiller expected to show 12.1% YoY increase for June

by Bill McBride on 8/20/2013 11:13:00 AM

From Zillow: Housing Conversation Turns to the Future as Market Turns in Another Strong Month in July

The national housing market recovery proved it is on firm ground in July, as home values rose 6 percent year-over-year to a Zillow Home Value Index of $161,600, the first time home values have appreciated at an annual pace of 6 percent or higher since August 2006.

July marked the 14th straight month of annual home value appreciation, according to the July Zillow Real Estate Market Reports. Home values were up 0.4 percent in July compared with June. ...

“After three straight months of annual home value appreciation above 5 percent, the U.S. housing market recovery has proven it is on very sound footing. We have entered a new phase in the recovery when we can begin to turn away from ugly recent history and turn toward what the housing market of the future will look like and how it will act. ...” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. ...

For the 12-month period from July 2013 to July 2014, U.S. home values are expected to rise another 4.8 percent to approximately $169,308, according to the Zillow Home Value Forecast.
The Zillow data is for July.

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June will be released Tuesday, August 27th.   Zillow has argued that the Case-Shiller numbers overstate the recent price increases: "The Case-Shiller indices are giving an inflated sense of national home value appreciation because they are biased toward the large, coastal metros currently seeing such enormous home value gains, and because they include foreclosure resales."

Also Zillow has started forecasting the Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  NOTE: Here is a repeat of the table I posted a few weeks ago:

Zillow Predicts Another 12% Annual Increase in Case-Shiller Indices for June. The following table shows the Zillow forecast for the June Case-Shiller index.

Zillow June Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
June 2012154.94154.07142.37141.37
Case-Shiller
(last month)
May 2013169.69170.62156.14157.01
Zillow ForecastYoY12.0%12.0%12.1%12.1%
MoM2.2%1.2%2.3%1.1%
Zillow Forecasts1 173.5172.6159.7158.6
Current Post Bubble Low 146.46149.61134.07136.85
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 18.4%15.4%19.1%15.9%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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