Friday, August 30, 2013

Vehicle Sales: Another strong month in August

by Bill McBride on 8/30/2013 08:30:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Wednesday, Sept 4th. 

According the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), light vehicle sales in July were at a 15.7 million rate, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.  It looks like August sales will be in the same range.

Here are a few forecasts:

From Kelley Blue Book: Crossovers, Pickup Trucks Lift August Sales Nearly 14 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book

In August, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,460,000 units, up 13.6 percent from August 2012 and up 11.0 percent from July 2013.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August 2013 is estimated to be 15.6 million, up from 14.5 million in August 2012 and down from 15.8 million in July 2013.
Press Release: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: August New-Vehicle Sales Reach Highest Level in Seven Years
With consistency in the fleet environment, total light-vehicle sales in August 2013 are also expected to increase by 12 percent from August 2012 to 1,495,400. Fleet sales are expected to account for 15 percent of total sales, with volume of 225,000 units.

PIN and LMC data show total sales reaching a 16 million unit SAAR in August, which is the highest since November 2007, with actual unit sales the highest since May 2007.
From TrueCar: August 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 14.4 Percent According to TrueCar; August 2013 SAAR at 15.75M, Highest August SAAR since 2007
For August 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,464,214 units, up 14.4 percent from August 2012 and up 11.8% percent from July 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).

The August 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.75 million new car sales
The analyst consensus is for sales of 15.8 million SAAR in August.

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