by Bill McBride on 8/31/2013 08:33:00 AM
Saturday, August 31, 2013
The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.
Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing report on Tuesday, the trade deficit on Wednesday, and August auto sales also on Wednesday.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
Early: The LPS July Mortgage Monitor report. This is a monthly report of mortgage delinquencies and other mortgage data.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the index to increase to 53.9 from 53.7 in July.
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for an derease to 53.8 from 55.4 in July. Based on the regional surveys, a decrease in August seems likely.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in 55.4% in July. The employment index was at 54.4%, and the new orders index was at 58.3%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.8 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.7million SAAR in July.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the July sales rate.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.
Imports decreased in June, and exports increased.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $39.0 billion in July from $34.2 billion in June.
2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 177,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 200,000 in July.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 330 thousand from 331 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 55.0, down from 56.0 in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is for a 3.4% decrease in orders.
10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for August. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August; the economy added 162,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.4 in August.
The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through July.
The economy has added 7.3 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (6.7 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).
There are still 1.5 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/31/2013 08:33:00 AM