Wednesday, August 14, 2013

MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

by Bill McBride on 8/14/2013 08:31:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2013. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.56 percent from 4.61 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
...
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.60 percent from 3.66 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the refinance index.

With 30 year mortgage rates up over the last 3 months, refinance activity has fallen sharply, decreasing in 12 of the last 14 weeks.

This index is down 59% over the last 3 months.   The last time the index declined this far was in late 2010 and early 2011 when mortgage increased sharply with the Ten Year Treasury rising from 2.5% to 3.5%.  We've seen a similar increase over the last few months with the Ten Year Treasury yield up from 1.6% to over 2.7% today.

Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  The 4-week average of the purchase index has generally been trending up over the last year (but down over the couple of months), and the 4-week average of the purchase index is up about 7% from a year ago.

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