Thursday, August 08, 2013

Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 9%

by Bill McBride on 8/08/2013 05:43:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR report shows 18-month run of rising home prices

GLVAR said the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in July was 3,633. That’s down slightly from 3,642 in June, but up from 3,572 total sales in July 2012. ...
...
In July, [GLVAR President Dave Tina said] “traditional” sales accounted for a recent high of 64 percent of all local home sales. ... In July, 28.0 percent of all existing home sales were short sales, down from 31.0 percent in June. Another 8.0 percent of all July sales were bank-owned properties, down from 9.0 percent of all sales in June. The remaining 64 percent of all sales were the traditional type, up from 60 percent in June.
...
The total number of properties listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service increased in July, with 14,133 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of the month. That’s up 2.8 percent from 13,750 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of June, but down 16.6 percent from last year. ...

By the end of July, GLVAR reported 4,681 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s up 22.3 percent from 3,828 such homes listed in June and up 9.0 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were down slightly from June, but up slightly year-over-year.

2) Conventional sales are up sharply.  In July 2012, only 39.3% of all sales were conventional.  This year, in July 2013, 64% were conventional.  That is an increase in conventional sales of about 65% (of course there is heavily investor buying, but that is still quite an increase in non-distressed sales).

3)  Most distressed sales are short sales instead of foreclosures (over 3 to 1).

4) and probably most interesting right now is that non-contingent inventory (year-over-year) is now increasing.  Non-contingent inventory is up 9.0% year-over-year

This suggests inventory has bottomed in Las Vegas (A major theme for housing in 2013).  And this suggests price increases will slow.