Thursday, August 15, 2013

Fed: Industrial Production unchanged in July

by Bill McBride on 8/15/2013 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in July after having gained 0.2 percent in June. In July, manufacturing production declined 0.1 percent. The output of mines advanced 2.1 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly increase, and the production of utilities fell 2.1 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly decrease. At 98.9 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in July was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry edged down 0.1 percentage point to 77.6 percent in July, a rate 0.3 percentage point below its level of a year earlier and 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2012) average
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.7 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.8% is still 2.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged in July at 98.9. This is 18.1% above the recession low, but still 1.9% below the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were below expectations. The consensus was for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production in July, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.9%.

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