Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Bernanke

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2013 09:10:00 PM

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Recovery Accelerates in May

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICES ADVANCE ACROSS THE BOARD IN MAY: The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI—the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index—increased by 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively, in the month of May 2013, reflecting continued improvement in market fundamentals and increased investment activity. The value-weighted index, which is heavily influenced by larger transactions and typically tracks with high quality core real estate prices, has now increased by 41% from its most recent trough in 2010. For comparison, the equal-weighted index, which is influenced by smaller, more numerous opportunistic transactions, has improved by 10% from its bottom in 2011.
...
DISTRESS SALES DECLINE WITH IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS: The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices declined to an average of 14.1% in April and May, the lowest two-month average on record since 2008. The decline in the number of distressed trades continues to support higher, more consistent pricing and has enhanced market liquidity by giving buyers and sellers greater confidence to do deals.
emphasis added
Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an decrease to 344 thousand from 360 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, Testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate. The prepared testimony will be the same as delivered Wednesday, but the Q&A might be interesting.

• Also at 10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 9.0, down from 12.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board Leading Indicators for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.