Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 29 States in June

by Bill McBride on 7/23/2013 12:06:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2013. In the past month, the indexes increased in 29 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in 14, for a one-month diffusion index of 44. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 72.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In June, 36 states had increasing activity, down from 40 in May (including minor increases). This measure has been and up down over the last few years ...

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all green at times during the recovery.

The map is mostly green, but several states are red again.