Sunday, July 21, 2013

DataQuick on California Home Sales: Total Sales Down, Conventional Sales up Sharply, Foreclosures lowest since August 2007

by Bill McBride on 7/21/2013 01:16:00 PM

From DataQuick: California June Home Sales

An estimated 41,027 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month. That was down 6.9 percent from a revised 44,087 in May, and down 3.5 percent from 42,513 sales in June 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

California June sales have varied from a low of 35,202 in 2008 to a high of 76,669 in 2004. Last month's sales were 16.8 percent below the average of 49,301 sales for all the months of June since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin.
...
Of the existing homes sold last month, 10.0 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year – the lowest level since foreclosure resales were 9.4 percent of the resale market in August 2007. Last month’s figure was down from a revised 11.3 percent in May and 24.9 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 58.8 percent in February 2009.

Short sales - transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property - made up an estimated 16.0 percent of the homes that resold last month. That was down from an estimated 16.8 percent the month before and 24.3 percent a year earlier.
...
Indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity remains well below year-ago and peak levels reached several years ago. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, while down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.
emphasis added
Sales are down year-over-year, but the key is the percentage of distressed sales is down significantly - and the number of conventional sales are up about 40% year-over-year!

This is kind of a preview for the NAR June report that will be released tomorrow.  The headline June sales number will probably be below the consensus forecast, but the keys will be inventory and the increase in conventional sales (unfortunately the NAR doesn't do a good job of tracking distressed sales).